Seventeen Points Gone: Florida's Governor Race Slipped
Favorites are supposed to harden as Election Day approaches. Florida's governor market did the opposite. Byron Donalds has fallen from 83% to 66% over seven days on Kalshi, the largest weekly decline on the politics board.
The market still did $559K in the last 24 hours, trading at 2.2 times its daily average, so this is not a favorite quietly drifting on no volume. Money is arriving specifically to sell the favorite down, with David Jolly now at 36% on the other side.
A 17-point slide in the final week does not mean the favorite loses. At 66%, Donalds still wins two times out of three in the market's read. It means the certainty premium is gone, and every new poll or headline between now and Tuesday lands on a price with no cushion left.
Florida was supposed to be a race traders checked once and forgot. Instead it became one of the last live questions of the cycle, priced accordingly.
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