Prices Get Smarter as Deadlines Get Closer
Prediction markets are often judged on their worst screenshot: a stale price from a thin market, quoted months early. Kalshi's August 2026 accuracy study measured the whole curve instead, and found its predictions generally became more accurate as events approached, especially in markets with more traders and more trading activity.
An independent check across nine resolved markets in politics, sports and pop culture found the same shape. An 80-cent contract that loses is not automatically a bad forecast; the other outcome carried a real 20% chance, and across many similar markets those chances are the product being sold.
The two levers in the study are the ones traders can actually see before they buy: time to resolution and crowd size. A liquid market near its deadline is a measurement. A thin market far from one is a rumor with a price tag.
Read that way, the industry's growth is itself an accuracy story. Record crowds and record volume do not just make exchanges richer. They make every number on the board harder to fool.
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