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Kalshi earnings forecast puts sports access at center of valuation outlook

PitchBook research estimates Kalshi will post about 3.7 billion dollars in gross revenue and 1.2 billion dollars in adjusted earnings in 2026, ahead of DraftKings on that earnings measure. The report values Kalshi at about 42.3 billion dollars and Polymarket at about 20.6 billion dollars, with both valuations assuming sports event contracts remain available in the United States.

Kalshi could generate about 3.7 billion dollars in gross revenue and 1.2 billion dollars in adjusted earnings in 2026, according to InGame’s account of PitchBook research.

That adjusted earnings estimate would place Kalshi ahead of DraftKings on that measure. The figures are projections, not reported results.

Valuations depend on sports contracts

PitchBook values Kalshi at about 42.3 billion dollars and Polymarket at about 20.6 billion dollars, according to InGame. Kalshi’s estimated valuation is more than twice Polymarket’s.

Both valuations assume sports event contracts remain available in the United States. That shared assumption makes continued access to those contracts a central condition of the estimates, rather than a separate consideration.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Distinguish forecasts from results: The 2026 revenue and adjusted earnings figures describe PitchBook’s expectations for Kalshi, not confirmed financial performance.
  • Keep the comparison narrow: Kalshi’s projected lead over DraftKings concerns adjusted earnings; it does not establish a lead on other financial measures.
  • Watch the underlying assumption: Both platform valuations depend on U.S. sports event contracts remaining available. The supplied summary gives no alternative valuations if that condition changes.
KalshiPolymarketDraftKingsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    InGame
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