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Harvie reaches 64.5 percent as House markets lead overnight shifts

Vantage Predictions reports Pennsylvania's 1st district and Colorado's 3rd district moved further overnight than any Senate race, with Harvie rising from 55 percent on Monday to 64.5 percent on the morning of Election Day. About 164 million dollars more traded on its 110 listed midterm and ballot markets since Monday afternoon, taking the total to 1.93 billion dollars.

Two House district markets saw larger overnight moves than any Senate race, according to Vantage Predictions: Pennsylvania's 1st district and Colorado's 3rd district.

Harvie rose from 55 percent on Monday to 64.5 percent on the morning of Election Day, a gain of 9.5 percentage points. The figures appeared in an update published Nov 3, 2026, at 10:45 AM ET.

House markets show the biggest movement

Vantage Predictions identified Pennsylvania's 1st district and Colorado's 3rd district as the standout overnight movers. The supplied summary does not specify the size or direction of the Colorado market's change.

The comparison concerns the scale of market movements, not the likelihood of a particular election outcome. Harvie's higher reading reflects a shift in market expectations rather than a confirmed result.

Trading total reaches 1.93 billion dollars

According to Vantage Predictions, about 164 million dollars more traded across its 110 listed midterm and ballot markets since Monday afternoon. That brought total trading to 1.93 billion dollars.

Those aggregate figures cover the full set of listed markets. The summary does not break out how much of the additional trading occurred in either of the two House district markets.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Harvie's move from 55 percent to 64.5 percent shows a substantial change in expectations between Monday and Election Day morning, but does not establish the eventual outcome.
  • Pennsylvania's 1st district and Colorado's 3rd district outpaced every Senate race in overnight movement, making House markets the leading sources of repricing in this update.
  • The additional trading provides context for overall market activity, but the available figures cannot link that volume to either district's movement.
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Sources & attribution

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    Vantage Predictions
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