Kalshi money reveals geographic divide over Maine and Michigan Democrats
Fox News reports Kalshi data shared with the outlet shows 61 percent of out-of-state money on Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine against 36 percent of in-state money, and 65 percent of out-of-state money on Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan against 49 percent in-state.
Kalshi data shared with Fox News shows a larger share of out-of-state money backing Democratic Senate candidates in Maine and Michigan than money from within those states, according to the outlet.
The figures concern Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. In both races, the geographic split places out-of-state backing above 60 percent, while in-state backing remains below 50 percent.
Maine shows the wider split
In Maine, 61 percent of out-of-state money backed Jackson, compared with 36 percent of in-state money, according to Fox News. That represents a 25-percentage-point difference.
In Michigan, 65 percent of out-of-state money backed El-Sayed, versus 49 percent of in-state money—a 16-percentage-point gap.
Reading the figures carefully
Fox News reported the figures on Nov 3, 2026, at 3:30 PM ET. The supplied summary does not specify the measurement period or the total amount of money involved.
The percentages describe the distribution of money by geographic origin, not the number of traders backing each candidate. They also do not establish either candidate’s overall market-implied probability of winning.
What it means for prediction markets
- Geographic composition matters when interpreting these figures: in-state and out-of-state money show different levels of backing for both Democrats.
- Maine’s 25-percentage-point gap is larger than Michigan’s 16-percentage-point gap, though El-Sayed has the higher backing share in both geographic groups.
- Without total dollar amounts for each group, the figures cannot establish how much either group contributes to aggregate backing.
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