Governor markets lean Democratic as Republican count forecast stays below 22

PolymarketTrader’s November 3 governor forecast puts Democrats ahead in 20 races, Republicans in 14 and other candidates in 2. The forecast covers 36 races with a Polymarket market on the winner.

The report, published Nov 3, 2026, at 4:45 PM ET, also identifies fewer than 22 Republican governors after the midterms as the most likely outcome, priced at 55.5 percent.

Race leaders and the overall count

The party breakdown describes which candidates are favoured across the 36 covered races. It is a snapshot of market expectations, rather than a tally of confirmed winners.

The Republican-governor threshold is a separate measure: it concerns the number of Republican governors after the midterms, not simply how many of the covered races currently favour Republicans.

Cross-exchange comparison

According to PolymarketTrader, 33 races have prices on both Polymarket and Kalshi. Across that shared coverage, the average gap between the exchanges is just 0.7 points.

That average indicates close pricing in aggregate, but the supplied summary does not give individual race gaps or identify where the exchanges differ most.

What it means for prediction markets

• Coverage matters: The 20 Democratic, 14 Republican and 2 other-candidate favourites refer to the 36 races with Polymarket winner markets.
• The count remains uncertain: A 55.5 percent probability makes fewer than 22 Republican governors the leading outcome, not a settled result.
• Agreement is an aggregate measure: The 0.7-point average gap across 33 jointly priced races does not establish that every race is priced closely.