Democratic sweep priced at 77 percent on Kalshi’s midterms board
Kalshi reports its live midterms board shows the Congress balance of power market at 113,446,230 dollars traded with a Democratic sweep at 77 percent and a Democratic House with a Republican Senate at 23 percent, alongside Senate control at 73 percent Democratic on 38,484,765 dollars and House control at 94 percent Democratic on 120,529,466 dollars.
Kalshi’s live midterms board put a Democratic sweep of Congress at 77 percent, according to Kalshi’s update published Nov 3, 2026 at 4:45 PM ET. The balance of power market had recorded $113,446,230 in trading.
The same market assigned 23 percent to a Democratic House paired with a Republican Senate, according to Kalshi. Those two outcomes both envisage Democratic control of the House, with the Senate determining the split.
Separate chamber markets show different odds
In the standalone Senate control market, Democrats stood at 73 percent on $38,484,765 traded, according to Kalshi. That probability was below the Democratic sweep price in the combined congressional market.
The House control market put Democrats at 94 percent, with $120,529,466 traded. Among the three reported markets, the House contract had the largest trading total, followed by the balance of power market and then Senate control.
What it means for prediction markets
- The reported prices show substantially stronger expectations for Democratic control of the House than of the Senate: 94 percent versus 73 percent.
- The combined market’s 77 percent Democratic sweep price differs from the standalone Senate market’s 73 percent Democratic reading. These are separate market prices, not a single consistent probability estimate.
- The figures are a snapshot of trading expectations at the reported update, not confirmed election outcomes.
Sources & attribution
- Published
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- Kalshikalshi.com
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- https://kalshi.com
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