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Acton reaches 98.5 percent as Ohio governor market strengthens Democratic expectations

Polyguana reports Democrat Amy Acton has run to 98.5 percent in the Ohio governor market and is priced as a safe Democratic flip of the open Republican-held seat, up from the 90 percent all-time high Kalshi flagged earlier in the evening. Ohio is one of 36 governorships on the ballot tonight.

Democrat Amy Acton reached 98.5 percent in the Ohio governor prediction market, according to Polyguana, putting market expectations firmly behind a Democratic takeover.

Market moves beyond earlier high

The latest figure was up from the 90 percent all-time high that Kalshi had flagged earlier in the evening. The increase amounts to 8.5 percentage points.

Polyguana’s report, published Nov 3, 2026, at 9:45 PM ET, described the market as pricing the race as a safe Democratic flip. That reflects market expectations rather than a confirmed election result.

Open Republican-held seat at stake

The Ohio governorship is an open, Republican-held seat. An Acton victory would therefore change party control, rather than return a Democratic incumbent to office.

Ohio is one of 36 governorships on the ballot tonight. The supplied reporting gives no market pricing for the other contests.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Expectations strengthened: The move from 90 percent to 98.5 percent signals a further concentration of market confidence in Acton.
  • Party control is central: The market is anticipating a Democratic gain in an open Republican-held governorship.
  • Pricing is not confirmation: The reported probability does not establish the election outcome; the supplied material contains no confirmed result.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Polyguana
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