October Fed-hike odds collapse, December now favored

October odds retreat after Williams remarks

Traders have sharply reduced their expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase in October, shifting the anticipated timing toward December, according to startupfortune.com. On October 11, Polymarket priced a 25 basis point hike at the October 28 meeting at 15.5%, compared with 16% on Kalshi. An average of the two platforms’ pricing had been near 69% in the days before September 29.

The change followed comments by New York Fed President John Williams at the University at Buffalo on September 29. Williams indicated that the Fed did not need to move quickly after its September increase, while leaving open another upward adjustment late this year if the economy followed his forecast, the outlet reported.

September’s decision had already raised the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the first increase since 2023. October contracts therefore concern a second consecutive hike—not the start of renewed tightening.

Another increase remains the favored year-end outcome

The decline in October pricing has not translated into expectations that tightening is over. According to startupfortune.com, Polymarket assigned a 77.5% probability on October 11 to at least one additional hike before year-end. Kalshi’s next-hike market recently put the chance of an increase before 2027 at about 75%. Those readings support a shift toward December, although neither is itself a December-only probability.

The economic-data backdrop is also less complete. The outlet reported that the Bureau of Labor Statistics postponed September’s jobs report and delayed CPI data, leaving the Fed without those releases ahead of October 28. ADP’s private payroll count showed a 32,000-job decline in September.

Bond yields add context to the timing debate

Long-term borrowing costs have risen alongside the changing policy outlook. Citing Trading Economics data, startupfortune.com reported that the 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.70% on October 7, its highest level in roughly 24 years, before slipping to around 5.60%. Danske Bank has identified 6% as a possibility for both 10- and 30-year yields.

Corporate financing adds another dimension. The outlet reported roughly $309 billion of investment-grade debt linked to AI buildouts in 2026, more than twice 2025’s $136 billion. Amazon offered additional yield on a $25 billion bond sale in July as demand amounted to 2.5 times the offering, compared with 3.2 times in March.

What it means for prediction markets

• Timing and direction are separate bets. October hike probabilities of 15.5% and 16% coexist with substantially higher odds of another increase before year-end.
• Year-end contracts do not directly price December. The 77.5% Polymarket reading and roughly 75% Kalshi reading cover broader outcomes, so they should not be presented as December-specific odds.
• Williams’s guidance was conditional. His comments reduced the apparent urgency of another move without ruling out further tightening.
• Missing releases complicate interpretation. Delayed official employment and inflation data leave fewer inputs for assessing the October 28 decision.