Texas Senate: markets hold Talarico at 67% despite tighter polls

James Talarico remains the favorite in the Texas Senate race on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with each platform pricing his chances of victory at 67%, according to the supplied summary of Action Network’s reporting.

Ken Paxton is priced at 35% on Kalshi and 36% on Polymarket. The figures show closely matched assessments across the two platforms, with neither market placing Paxton ahead.

Market agreement, limited polling detail

The Oct 13, 2026 · 3:24 AM ET update describes those prices as holding despite tighter polls. However, the supplied material contains no polling results, fieldwork dates or previous market prices, limiting any assessment of the divergence between polling and market expectations.

The available figures therefore establish a shared market favorite, but not how much the race has narrowed or how traders have responded over time. The supplied Action Network extract consists of website formatting and promotional material rather than substantive reporting, so further details cannot be verified from it.

What it means for prediction markets

• The platforms agree on the favorite: Talarico’s reported probability is 67% on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
• Paxton’s pricing is also closely aligned: His reported figures are 35% and 36%, respectively.
• The polling comparison remains incomplete: Without poll numbers or a price history, the material does not establish the scale of the tightening or the markets’ reaction.