49ers take the Super Bowl LXI lead as futures reshuffle

San Francisco moves ahead

San Francisco leads the Super Bowl LXI futures market at about 12% across Kalshi and Polymarket, according to defirate.com. Its implied probability has risen 3 points in seven days.

Buffalo and the Rams are close behind, each at about 11%. That leaves the 49ers with a narrow advantage rather than a substantial gap over their nearest challengers.

Prices differ by venue and measure

Defirate.com lists San Francisco at roughly 1 in 8, with an equivalent odds figure of +708. Its venue-specific figures show Polymarket at 12.9¢ and Polymarket US at 12.5¢.

Those figures are not directly comparable execution prices: Kalshi and Polymarket US display the last trade, while Polymarket displays a price available to buy. According to defirate.com, $100 placed on Polymarket at the ask would return $775 if correct, before fees.

What it means for prediction markets

• The lead remains slim. San Francisco’s roughly 12% probability puts it only slightly ahead of Buffalo and the Rams, both around 11%.
• The weekly move is meaningful but not decisive. A 3-point increase in seven days has put the 49ers on top, while their probability remains roughly 1 in 8.
• Price conventions matter. Comparing a last-traded price with a current buy price can obscure differences between venues; the cited payout also excludes fees.