Polymarket pricing shifts sharply toward zero Republican Senate swing state victories
DeFi Rate lists the none outcome in the market on which Senate swing states Republicans will win as the biggest seven-day political mover, rising from 1 percent to 26 percent on Polymarket with 3.5 million dollars traded in 24 hours.
A 25-point move in seven days
The outcome that Republicans win none of the Senate swing states reached 26 percent on Polymarket, up from 1 percent seven days earlier, according to DeFi Rate.
That 25-percentage-point increase made the “none” outcome the largest seven-day mover in DeFi Rate’s political market rankings.
Trading activity and scope
DeFi Rate listed $3.5 million in trading over 24 hours for the market asking which Senate swing states Republicans will win. The supplied summary does not break down that volume by outcome.
The update was published on Oct 31, 2026, at 9:30 PM ET. It provides no explanation for the repricing or details about which states the contract covers.
What it means for prediction markets
- The move from 1 percent to 26 percent marks a substantial repricing of the no-wins outcome, but its price remains below 50 percent.
- The $3.5 million trading figure describes market activity; the summary does not establish how much trading involved the “none” outcome.
- Without contract definitions or an explanation for the move, the supplied figures alone cannot establish what drove the change.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- DeFi Ratedefirate.com
- Publisher
- https://defirate.com
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to DeFi Rate”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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