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Maduro holds 71 percent probability in Venezuela year-end leadership market

The Polymarket market on who leads Venezuela at the end of 2026 prices Nicolas Maduro at 71 percent, up 4.3 points, with 98.3 million dollars in total volume and 57,000 dollars traded in 24 hours.

Polymarket traders assign Nicolas Maduro a 71 percent probability of leading Venezuela at the end of 2026, according to GoCharting.

The update, published Oct 31, 2026 at 8:45 PM ET, puts Maduro’s probability up 4.3 points. The supplied summary does not specify the period over which that increase occurred.

Trading activity and the year-end outlook

Total volume in the market on who leads Venezuela at the end of 2026 stands at 98.3 million dollars, according to GoCharting. Trading over 24 hours amounted to 57,000 dollars.

The reported price places Maduro above an even chance of remaining leader at the market’s year-end horizon. The summary provides no prices for other potential outcomes or explanation for the move.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Probability, not certainty: The 71 percent price reflects a market assessment of Maduro’s year-end leadership status, not a confirmed outcome.
  • An upward move with limited context: The 4.3-point rise indicates a shift toward Maduro, but the supplied information does not establish its timing or catalyst.
  • Separate volume measures: The 98.3 million dollars in total volume and 57,000 dollars traded in 24 hours describe different activity windows; neither figure alone establishes market liquidity.
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Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    GoCharting
    Publisher
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    Source URL
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