NFL division winners: Jacksonville leads AFC South at 75% on Kalshi and 77% on Polymarket, up 6 points

Jacksonville’s position as the AFC South favourite strengthened in the Oct. 15, 2026 board reading, with the Jaguars at 75% on Kalshi and 77% on Polymarket. The reported six-point increase measures the change in the average of the two venues’ prices since Oct. 8, rather than a separate six-point gain on each exchange.

According to iPredicta, the prices were collected on Oct. 15 at 09:11 UTC. Both platforms placed Jacksonville comfortably ahead of the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts, with little separating those two challengers.

A stronger lead after a corrected table

The latest figures follow a substantial shift from iPredicta’s Sept. 29, 2026 reading. At that point, Jacksonville stood at 52.5% on Kalshi and 54.5% on Polymarket, measured using the midpoint between the best bid and ask. Houston was second at 22.5% and 20.5%, respectively, with Indianapolis within roughly a point on both venues.

That earlier reading accompanied a correction. According to iPredicta, its AFC South table had remained fixed at Sept. 13 prices for sixteen days because its system retained the last valid rows when the market leader no longer matched the accompanying text. The outdated table showed Houston leading at 45% and 47%; the outlet said its other division tables continued updating normally.

Jacksonville finished the 2025 regular season at 13-4, ahead of Houston’s 12-5, according to iPredicta. Former Jaguars linebacker Paul Posluszny also identified Jacksonville as an AFC South contender in his predictions before the 2026 season began. Those details provide background, but the supplied reporting does not identify a specific catalyst for the latest weekly price increase.

Agreement on the favourite, with pricing caveats

Polymarket’s AFC South contracts summed to 101.5% at the Oct. 15 snapshot, with $39,259 traded over the market’s lifetime, according to iPredicta. The two-percentage-point difference between Jacksonville’s venue prices therefore sits alongside a broader qualification: the quoted probabilities across all teams did not total exactly 100%.

The AFC South contrasts with the more divided AFC West market. According to iPredicta, Kalshi narrowly favoured the Denver Broncos there, while Polymarket gave the Kansas City Chiefs a slight lead, with the Los Angeles Chargers also competitive. Jacksonville’s lead, by comparison, was shared across both venues.

What it means for prediction markets

• The weekly move is an average: The six-point increase refers to the combined venue average since Oct. 8, not necessarily identical moves on Kalshi and Polymarket.
• Historical comparisons require care: The frozen Sept. 13 table should not be treated as an updated reading during the sixteen-day period identified in the correction.
• Prices need market context: Polymarket’s 101.5% book total and $39,259 lifetime turnover are relevant alongside the headline 77% quote; venue agreement alone does not establish equal trading depth.