Venue gap: Roma to win Serie A at 17c on Kalshi vs. 13c on Polymarket

Roma prices diverge across venues

Roma’s Serie A title contract was listed at 17c on Kalshi and 13c on Polymarket in the Oct 15, 2026 · 6:39 AM ET snapshot. The displayed prices put Kalshi 4 cents above Polymarket.

According to the supplied PicksByOdds summary, Roma ranked among the largest verified differences between venues, with a reported gap of 3.6 percentage points. That figure differs from the spread calculated from the headline’s prices; the provided material does not explain the discrepancy.

The summary also identifies Su Chiao-hui in the New Taipei mayoral contest as another notable cross-venue disagreement. It ends before providing prices or the size of that gap.

Supporting material is limited

The supplied picksbyodds.com excerpt does not contain the Roma comparison. Instead, it covers a contract asking whether the Eastern Pacific will record more than 6 hurricanes of category 3 or above in 2026, with the outcome labeled “Above 6.”

According to PicksByOdds, that contract’s YES price has moved 69.0 percentage points since its archive began. The excerpt characterizes the movement as a research signal rather than trading advice. It provides no additional evidence for the football or mayoral-market comparisons.

What it means for prediction markets

• The reported disagreement is clear, but its precise size needs qualification: the headline shows 17c versus 13c, while the summary reports 3.6 percentage points.
• The supplied evidence is incomplete: it does not include the Roma contracts’ terms, liquidity or underlying price observations, limiting assessment of whether the two listings are directly comparable.
• The other signals are distinct: the hurricane figure measures movement over time, not a cross-venue gap, while the Su Chiao-hui comparison lacks numerical detail.