Idaho Senate winner priced as a lock: Jim Risch at 95% on both venues

Risch holds a wide pricing lead

Jim Risch was priced near 95% to win Idaho’s Senate race on both Kalshi and Polymarket in DeFi Rate’s Oct. 15, 2026 board. Todd Achilles stood at 5%, leaving a substantial gap between the two candidates.

The board, observed from 1:11–5:43 AM ET, listed Risch at 94.7¢ on Kalshi and 95.2¢ on Polymarket. The two venues were separated by just 0.5¢—a closely aligned assessment, though not a guarantee of the outcome.

Strong pricing, limited reported activity

The supplied DeFi Rate summary reported $3K in combined 24-hour activity. That relatively small dollar total is an important qualification alongside the high implied probability: the price level and the amount traded convey different information.

DeFi Rate’s broader board covers all 35 U.S. Senate elections in 2026 across Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Gemini and OG. According to the outlet, the final three weeks opened with October 13 debates in Maine, Georgia and Iowa and a new Marist poll showing Texas within two points. The supplied material offers no comparable Idaho-specific polling or campaign development to explain Risch’s pricing.

What it means for prediction markets

• Close agreement across venues: Risch’s 94.7¢ and 95.2¢ prices show little divergence between Kalshi and Polymarket in the observed window.
• A strong favorite, not a settled result: Pricing near 95% still leaves room for an upset; Achilles was listed at 5%.
• Activity matters: The reported $3K combined 24-hour total limits how much can be inferred about the depth of participation behind those prices.