Astra release odds climb as Google’s November leadership probability slips
The market for the next Astra model, version 6.1 or higher, released by December 31, 2026 is priced at 91.5 percent on Polymarket, up 14 points in 24 hours, with 134,000 dollars traded. Google having the best AI model at the end of November is priced at 61.5 percent, down 3 points, with 138,000 dollars traded.
Polymarket’s contract on whether the next Astra model, version 6.1 or higher, will be released by December 31, 2026 reached 91.5 percent, according to PredictionBubbles. The probability rose 14 points in 24 hours.
The update, published Nov 1, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET, put trading volume in the Astra market at 134,000 dollars.
Two AI contracts move in opposite directions
A separate Polymarket contract on Google having the best AI model at the end of November stood at 61.5 percent, according to PredictionBubbles. That probability was down 3 points, with 138,000 dollars traded.
The contracts concern different outcomes: Astra’s measures a release deadline for a specified minimum version, while Google’s measures model leadership at the end of November. The supplied summary gives no explanation for either price change.
What it means for prediction markets
- Astra’s 91.5 percent price indicates a strongly favored release by December 31, 2026, but not certainty. The version 6.1-or-higher requirement is central to the stated outcome.
- Google remains above 50 percent in its November leadership market despite the 3-point decline.
- The opposing moves do not establish a link between the outcomes. The supplied reporting provides prices and traded amounts, but no catalyst or detailed resolution rules.
Sources & attribution
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- PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
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- https://predictionbubbles.com
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