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Ford’s Nevada odds reach 75 percent as Lombardo remains underdog

DeFi Rate reports Democrat Aaron Ford trades at 75 percent on Kalshi and about 75 percent on Polymarket US against Republican Governor Joe Lombardo, up from 74 percent on Monday and 58 percent on October 21. Lombardo is the only Republican incumbent governor in a state Donald Trump carried in 2024 whom the market prices as an underdog.

Democrat Aaron Ford is priced at 75 percent on Kalshi and about 75 percent on Polymarket US in the Nevada governor contest against Republican Governor Joe Lombardo, according to DeFi Rate.

Ford’s market position strengthens

DeFi Rate’s update, published Nov 3, 2026, at 10:15 AM ET, puts Ford above the 74 percent level recorded on Monday. The larger shift has come since October 21, when he was priced at 58 percent.

The reported move from 58 percent to 75 percent represents a 17-percentage-point increase. Kalshi and Polymarket US now show broadly similar pricing for Ford, although DeFi Rate describes the Polymarket US figure as approximate.

Lombardo’s unusual incumbent position

According to DeFi Rate, Lombardo is the only Republican incumbent governor in a state Donald Trump carried in 2024 whom the market considers an underdog. That distinction places Nevada’s pricing in contrast with the other incumbents in that category.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Ford’s reported pricing has risen substantially since October 21, while the move from Monday’s 74 percent is much smaller.
  • Kalshi’s 75 percent and Polymarket US’s approximately 75 percent indicate similar assessments across the two platforms, not a guaranteed outcome.
  • Lombardo’s underdog status makes this contest distinctive among Republican incumbent governors in states Trump carried in 2024, according to DeFi Rate.
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Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
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