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Abbott and Talarico pairing tops Texas joint election pricing

USA Today reports the Texas combo market prices a split outcome of Republican Greg Abbott winning the governor race and Democrat James Talarico winning the Senate race highest, at 44 percent on Kalshi on 1,605,777 dollars traded and 42 percent on Polymarket on 104,726 dollars traded. The reverse split of Gina Hinojosa and Ken Paxton both winning is priced at less than 1 percent on both venues.

According to USA Today, a split-party result leads pricing in the Texas governor-and-Senate combination market: Republican Greg Abbott winning the governor race alongside Democrat James Talarico winning the Senate race.

Two venues favor the same pairing

As of the report published Nov 3, 2026, at 12:15 PM ET, that combination was priced at 44 percent on Kalshi and 42 percent on Polymarket. It ranked highest on both venues, though neither price reached 50 percent.

USA Today reported 1,605,777 dollars traded in the Kalshi market, compared with 104,726 dollars on Polymarket. The venues therefore showed similar pricing for the leading outcome despite substantially different trading totals.

The opposite split—Gina Hinojosa winning the governor race and Ken Paxton winning the Senate race—was priced at less than 1 percent on both venues, according to USA Today.

What it means for prediction markets

  • These prices concern paired results, not standalone probabilities for either candidate to win an individual race.
  • The Abbott–Talarico combination leads on both venues, but its 44 percent and 42 percent prices still leave more than half the implied probability with other combinations collectively.
  • The Hinojosa–Paxton pairing sits below 1 percent on both platforms, showing agreement on its low pricing as well as on the leading combination.
KalshiPolymarketSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    USA Todayusatoday.com
    Publisher
    https://www.usatoday.com
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