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Miami championship contracts show largest pricing divide in Rivo snapshot

Rivo reports its November 4, 1:58 a.m. ET cross-venue read priced Miami at 14 cents on Polymarket US and 28 cents on Gemini to win the college football championship, a 14-point gap that was the widest it tracked across the markets it follows. Mississippi was next at 6.8 points, priced at 3.2 cents on Polymarket against 10 cents on Gemini, and a gap only pays after both venues fees and settlement rules are accounted for.

Miami leads the cross-venue spread

Miami Hurricanes contracts to win the college football championship traded at 14 cents on Polymarket US and 28 cents on Gemini in Rivo’s November 4, 1:58 a.m. ET comparison, according to Rivo.

The 14-point difference was the largest among the markets Rivo tracks. The report was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 2:15 AM ET; the prices reflect the earlier snapshot, rather than a continuing spread.

Mississippi ranks next

Mississippi had the next-largest difference at 6.8 points, according to Rivo. Its championship contract was priced at 3.2 cents on Polymarket and 10 cents on Gemini.

Those displayed differences alone do not establish a profitable opportunity. As Rivo noted, any payoff from the gap depends on accounting for both venues’ fees and settlement rules.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Venue prices diverged substantially: Miami’s 14-point spread was the widest in Rivo’s tracked markets, with Mississippi next at 6.8 points.
  • The comparison is time-specific: The quoted prices come from November 4 at 1:58 a.m. ET, not necessarily the prices available later.
  • Costs and contract terms matter: Fees and settlement rules must be assessed before treating a displayed price gap as a realizable payoff.
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    Rivo
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