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Midterm betting volume concentrates in a handful of Senate races

Reuters reports more than 28,000 midterm markets have been opened so far, with a fraction of individual contests, including Senate races in Texas, Michigan, Maine and South Carolina, accounting for most trading volume. Kalshi reported 1.33 billion dollars in trading volume across all midterm bets on Monday, while about 145 million dollars has been wagered on Polymarket congressional markets, according to the Anti-Corruption Data Collective.

More than 28,000 midterm markets have opened so far, but most trading volume is concentrated in a small share of individual contests, according to Reuters.

Senate races in Texas, Michigan, Maine and South Carolina are among the contests accounting for that activity. The figures distinguish the breadth of markets available from the narrower set attracting most trading.

Platform totals show the scale of activity

Kalshi reported 1.33 billion dollars in trading volume across all midterm bets on Monday, according to Reuters.

About 145 million dollars has been wagered on Polymarket congressional markets, according to the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, cited by Reuters. The totals cover differently described categories—Kalshi’s full midterm offering and Polymarket’s congressional markets—rather than an explicitly identical set of contracts.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Market count does not establish trading depth. More than 28,000 markets have opened, while most volume is concentrated in a fraction of contests.
  • Selected Senate races are activity centers. Texas, Michigan, Maine and South Carolina feature among the contests drawing most trading volume.
  • Volume is not a forecast. The reported figures describe betting activity, not contract prices or implied probabilities of election outcomes.
KalshiPolymarketSenateMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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