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Midterm betting expands as trading clusters around select Senate races

Reuters reports the Anti-Corruption Data Collective count of more than 28,000 midterm markets opened so far, with a fraction of individual contests accounting for a large chunk of trading volume. It cites Texas Senate at nearly 67 million dollars in wagers as of October 29 and Michigan Senate at more than 26 million dollars, alongside Kalshi at 1.33 billion dollars across all midterm bets on Monday against about 145 million dollars on Polymarket congressional markets.

More than 28,000 midterm markets have opened so far, according to Reuters, citing a count by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective. But only a small share of individual contests accounts for a large portion of trading volume.

Senate contests draw concentrated activity

Reuters identifies Senate races in Texas, Michigan, Maine and South Carolina as attracting a substantial share of trading. The figures highlight the difference between the number of markets available and where wagers are concentrated.

The Texas Senate contest had drawn nearly 67 million dollars in wagers as of October 29, according to Reuters. Michigan Senate wagers exceeded 26 million dollars. The supplied reporting does not provide individual totals for Maine or South Carolina.

Platform totals cover different categories

Kalshi recorded 1.33 billion dollars across all midterm bets on Monday, Reuters reported, compared with about 145 million dollars on Polymarket congressional markets.

Those figures describe different categories: Kalshi’s total covers all midterm bets, while Polymarket’s covers congressional markets. They therefore should not be treated as a like-for-like comparison of platform activity.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Breadth is not evenly distributed activity: More than 28,000 markets have opened, but a small fraction of contests accounts for a large share of volume.
  • Senate races are a focal point: Texas and Michigan have substantial reported wager totals, with Maine and South Carolina also identified as significant trading destinations.
  • Comparisons require consistent scope: The platform totals cover different market categories, and the Texas figure is dated October 29 rather than Monday.
  • Volume is not an outcome forecast: The supplied figures measure wagering activity, not candidate probabilities or expected election results.
KalshiPolymarketSenateMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Reutersreuters.com
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    https://www.reuters.com
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