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Midterm betting volume tops $1.48 billion as scrutiny follows concentrated trading

IDN Financials, citing Reuters, says more than 28,000 midterm markets were opened, with trading concentrated in a few Senate races including Texas at nearly 67 million dollars as of October 29. Kalshi reported 1.33 billion dollars across all midterm contracts, while Polymarket's congressional markets drew about 145 million dollars, according to the Anti-Corruption Data Collective.

More than $1.48 billion was wagered on US election prediction markets, according to IDN Financials, citing Reuters. The activity put Kalshi and Polymarket under scrutiny over accuracy and oversight.

Volume centers on a few Senate contests

More than 28,000 midterm markets were opened, according to the reporting. Trading nevertheless clustered in a small number of Senate races, rather than spreading evenly across that range of contracts.

Texas was among the focal points, attracting nearly $67 million as of October 29. That concentration distinguishes the number of markets available from where participants actually committed money.

Platforms report different contract totals

Kalshi reported $1.33 billion across all midterm contracts. Polymarket’s congressional markets attracted about $145 million, according to the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, as cited in the report.

Those figures cover differently described categories: all midterm contracts for Kalshi and congressional markets for Polymarket. The supplied reporting does not provide accuracy measurements or details of the oversight concerns, limiting what can be concluded from the volume figures alone.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Breadth is not the same as depth: More than 28,000 markets were opened, but concentrated trading means the headline count does not establish comparable participation across contracts.
  • Scope matters in platform comparisons: Kalshi’s all-midterm total and Polymarket’s congressional total should retain their respective labels.
  • Volume does not establish accuracy: The reported wagers show substantial participation, but the supplied figures do not demonstrate how reliably market prices anticipated outcomes.
KalshiPolymarketSenateElectionsMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    IDN Financials
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