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Mojtaba Khamenei leads Iran year-end market at 88.8 percent

World Monitor reports its live November 4 reading, taken at 6:40 a.m. ET, prices Mojtaba Khamenei at 88.8 percent to be head of state in Iran at the end of 2026 on Polymarket, with 40.7 million dollars traded on the market, the third most-traded of the 50 geopolitics, economics and technology markets it tracks.

Polymarket priced Mojtaba Khamenei at 88.8 percent to be Iran’s head of state at the end of 2026, according to World Monitor’s live November 4 reading, taken at 6:40 a.m. ET.

The market had recorded 40.7 million dollars in trading. World Monitor published the update on Nov 4, 2026, at 6:45 AM ET.

Trading volume places market third in tracked group

The Iran contract was the third most-traded among the 50 geopolitics, economics and technology markets World Monitor tracks. That ranking applies to the outlet’s monitored group, rather than necessarily to Polymarket as a whole.

The 88.8 percent reading reflects pricing for a specific year-end outcome. It is not confirmation of who will hold the position, and the supplied snapshot does not establish how the price or trading volume changed before the observation.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A strongly favored outcome: The reported price puts Mojtaba Khamenei well above an even chance of being Iran’s head of state at the end of 2026, while leaving uncertainty.
  • Substantial activity within the tracked sample: Trading of 40.7 million dollars places the market third among World Monitor’s 50 monitored contracts; volume alone does not establish forecast accuracy.
  • A timestamped signal: The figures describe the November 4 observation at 6:40 a.m. ET, not a subsequent price or a trend over time.
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    World Monitor
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