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TD Cowen flags crypto legislative risks if Democrats win both chambers

StarEx reports investment bank TD Cowen sketches three electoral outcomes for the 2026 midterms and describes a Democratic sweep of both houses as the most adverse legislative scenario for the cryptocurrency industry. In the analysis, Kalshi and Polymarket assign a 72 to 75 percent probability to a Democratic takeover of the Senate.

Investment bank TD Cowen identifies a Democratic sweep of both houses as the most adverse legislative outcome for the cryptocurrency industry in the 2026 midterms, according to StarEx.

Electoral scenarios and crypto legislation

TD Cowen’s analysis outlines three potential electoral outcomes, StarEx reports. The supplied summary details only its assessment of a Democratic sweep; it does not describe the other two scenarios.

The assessment focuses on the legislative environment for cryptocurrency. The summary does not identify particular bills or policy changes underlying the bank’s ranking.

Senate probabilities

According to StarEx’s account of the analysis, Kalshi and Polymarket assign a 72 to 75 percent probability to a Democratic takeover of the Senate. The summary does not specify which platform carries which probability.

That Senate estimate is distinct from the likelihood of Democrats winning both houses—the outcome TD Cowen identifies as the industry’s most adverse legislative scenario. The supplied material provides no probability for a sweep.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Different outcomes require different readings: The 72 to 75 percent range concerns Democratic control of the Senate, not control of both houses.
  • Policy risk is separate from electoral probability: TD Cowen’s ranking assesses the legislative implications for crypto, rather than the likelihood of a Democratic sweep.
  • The comparison is incomplete: Without details on the other two scenarios or platform-specific probabilities, the summary supports only a limited assessment of the bank’s outlook against market pricing.
KalshiPolymarketSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    StarEx
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