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Iran leadership contract reaches 85.7 percent as trading totals $40.6 million

World Monitor's live tracker of 50 Polymarket and Kalshi markets, updated October 31, ranks the Iran leadership market second by volume at 40.6 million dollars traded, behind only the market on a US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 76.1 million dollars.

Mojtaba Khamenei was priced at 85.7 percent on Polymarket to be Iran’s head of state at the end of 2026, according to World Monitor. Trading volume in the contract stood at $40.6 million.

Iran contracts lead the tracked markets

World Monitor’s live tracker, updated October 31, covers 50 markets across Polymarket and Kalshi. The Iran leadership contract ranked second by trading volume within that group.

The only tracked market with greater volume concerned a US invasion of Iran before 2027. That contract had drawn $76.1 million in trading, according to World Monitor.

Price and volume offer different signals

The leadership contract’s 85.7 percent price indicates a strong market expectation for the specified year-end outcome, rather than certainty. Its $40.6 million trading total measures activity in the contract, not the likelihood of its resolution.

The supplied report, published Oct 31, 2026 at 3:45 PM ET, provides no earlier price or volume figures for comparison. It therefore establishes a snapshot, rather than showing whether expectations about Khamenei had strengthened or weakened.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Leadership expectations: The 85.7 percent reading applies specifically to Khamenei being Iran’s head of state at the end of 2026.
  • Relative trading activity: The leadership and US invasion contracts occupied the top two volume positions among the 50 markets World Monitor tracked—not necessarily across all prediction markets.
  • Separate outcomes: The $76.1 million invasion-market volume does not establish its implied probability; no price for that contract was supplied.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    World Monitor
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