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Worth More Than the Bookies Combined

Prediction markets now have a profit story to match the volume story. In a research report released Friday, PitchBook estimates Kalshi is on course for $1.2 billion in adjusted earnings in 2026, ahead of DraftKings' guidance for the year, on $3.7 billion in gross revenue. Kalshi has already banked $2.4 billion in fee revenue before rebates this year, with records falling regularly since football season began.

The valuations are the headline. PitchBook puts Kalshi at $42.3 billion and Polymarket at $20.6 billion, a combined $62.9 billion, while Flutter and DraftKings together are worth less than $23 billion after their share prices tumbled. The estimates sit just above the roughly $40 billion and $20 billion levels the two exchanges are reportedly raising funds at, and PitchBook says the acceleration in trading volume warrants them.

The gap between the rivals is earnings, not attention. Polymarket's projected 2026 gross revenue is $842 million, with $526.9 million net and just $34.9 million in adjusted earnings, weighed down by running two exchanges, one in the U.S. and one globally. Marketing is the biggest expense at both firms, about 33 percent of Kalshi's revenue, with all of Kalshi's costs adding up to about 60 percent of revenue.

PitchBook expects the lead to widen, then narrow. By 2028 it projects Kalshi gross revenue of $8.5 billion and adjusted earnings of $3 billion, against Polymarket gross revenue of $3.2 billion and earnings of $624.3 million. Even if a court ruling cost them a quarter of U.S. sports contracts, Kalshi would still be worth $25 billion and Polymarket $14.6 billion: hurt, not ruined.

The engine underneath is volume. Kalshi set a record $5.3 billion day on a recent Saturday, a $10 billion weekend, and $25.5 billion across the seven days to October 26, taking $118.4 million in fee revenue that week. Polymarket US set its own record the same Saturday at $811.2 million. The bookies are no longer the biggest business in the room.

KalshiPolymarketPitchBookvaluationsprediction marketsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    PitchBook
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