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Vance tops Republican nomination pricing as Democrats lead White House markets

DeFi Rate averages Kalshi at 35.5 cents and Polymarket at 38.6 cents for Vance as Republican nominee, while Democrats are favored for the White House at about 63 percent across the two venues. Ron DeSantis sits third in the nominee field at 4.3 percent.

JD Vance leads the market for the 2028 Republican nomination at 37 percent, ahead of Marco Rubio at 20 percent, according to DeFi Rate. The figures place Vance first in the nomination field, but below an outright majority probability.

Republican nomination pricing

DeFi Rate’s average draws on Vance prices of 35.5 cents on Kalshi and 38.6 cents on Polymarket. Both venues put his nomination prospects above one-third, with Polymarket pricing him higher.

Ron DeSantis ranks third at 4.3 percent, according to DeFi Rate. The reported figures show a substantial gap between the two leading candidates and the third-place contender.

A separate signal for the White House

Democrats are favored to win the White House at about 63 percent across the two venues, according to DeFi Rate. That measures a different outcome from the Republican nomination contest: which party wins the presidency, rather than whom Republicans select.

The snapshot, published Oct 31, 2026 at 6:15 PM ET, therefore shows a Republican nomination leader alongside a broader market advantage for Democrats. Vance’s position in the nomination field does not itself establish his chances of winning the presidency.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Leading is not the same as being likely to win: Vance’s 37 percent puts him ahead of Rubio at 20 percent, while remaining below 50 percent.
  • Venue differences matter: Kalshi’s 35.5-cent price and Polymarket’s 38.6-cent price are distinct inputs to DeFi Rate’s average.
  • Keep the outcomes separate: The roughly 63 percent Democratic White House probability cannot be directly treated as a probability for or against any individual Republican nominee.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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