Democratic Senate odds top 70 percent as election approaches
Polyguana's live board prices Democrats at 72 percent on Polymarket and 73 percent on Kalshi to win the Senate, and at 95 percent on Polymarket and 94 percent on Kalshi to win the House, with 37.3 million dollars traded on the House board. Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47, with 35 seats up for election on November 3.
Democrats are priced as favorites to win both chambers of Congress ahead of the November 3 election, according to Polyguana’s live board. Its midterm tracker puts their expected Senate seat count at 52.3.
Senate prices point toward a change in control
According to Polyguana’s update published Nov 2, 2026, at 3:00 AM ET, Polymarket gives Democrats a 72 percent chance of winning the Senate, compared with 73 percent on Kalshi.
Republicans currently hold the Senate 53 to 47, with 35 seats up for election on November 3. The tracker covers 506 races and records 15.1 million dollars traded on the Senate board, according to Polyguana.
House contracts show stronger Democratic expectations
The Democratic probability is higher in House markets: 95 percent on Polymarket and 94 percent on Kalshi, according to Polyguana. The House board has attracted 37.3 million dollars in trading.
The two platforms differ by one percentage point for each chamber, though the ordering reverses: Kalshi assigns Democrats the higher Senate probability, while Polymarket gives them the higher House probability.
What it means for prediction markets
- Senate pricing favors a Democratic takeover from the current Republican majority, but neither platform treats that outcome as certain.
- The 52.3-seat expectation is a separate measure from the probability of winning Senate control; it is not a guaranteed seat tally.
- House contracts express greater confidence in a Democratic win than Senate contracts, alongside higher reported trading volume.
Sources & attribution
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