Alaska Senate count leaves Peltola narrowly ahead as markets favor victory
Alaska continues counting early and absentee ballots, with the next scheduled count on November 10 and ranked-choice tabulation set for November 18. Polymarket prices Peltola at 95 cents, up 7 points, while Kalshi prices the Democratic contract at 93.8 cents.
Mary Peltola holds a 637-vote lead over Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s Senate race with 70 percent of votes counted, according to Action Network. Prediction-market prices favor Peltola despite the narrow margin in the unfinished tally.
Counting schedule remains central
The update, published Nov 5, 2026 at 1:30 PM ET, comes as Alaska continues counting early and absentee ballots. The next scheduled count is November 10.
Ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for November 18. Those dates provide distinct checkpoints for assessing the race as counting proceeds; the reported lead is not a final result.
Contracts reflect a stronger lean than the vote margin
According to Action Network, Polymarket prices Peltola at 95 cents, an increase of 7 points. On Kalshi, the Democratic contract is priced at 93.8 cents.
Both prices indicate a strong market preference for a Democratic win. The supplied figures nevertheless describe different measures: a narrow lead in counted votes and substantially higher market confidence in the eventual outcome.
What it means for prediction markets
- November 10 is the next scheduled counting checkpoint. Additional early and absentee ballots could change the reported margin.
- November 18 remains another key date. Ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled then, keeping the counting process relevant beyond the next update.
- High prices are not confirmation of a result. Polymarket’s 95-cent Peltola price and Kalshi’s 93.8-cent Democratic price should be distinguished from the current 637-vote lead with 70 percent counted.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- Action Networkactionnetwork.com
- Publisher
- https://www.actionnetwork.com
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Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Action Network”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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