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Bank of Mexico rate bets swing sharply toward quarter-point cut

PredictionBubbles shows the pricing flipped hours ahead of the November 5 decision, reversing the no-change contract's earlier lead on the board. The cut contract traded 188,000 dollars and the no-change contract 208,000 dollars.

Pricing on Polymarket shifted toward a 25 basis point Bank of Mexico interest-rate cut hours before the November 5 decision, according to PredictionBubbles. The move reversed the earlier lead held by the contract for no change after the November meeting.

Rate expectations reverse

The no-change contract dropped 74 points to 0.5 percent, while the 25 basis point cut contract gained 43 points to 69.5 percent, according to PredictionBubbles.

The update was published on Nov 5, 2026, at 2:45 PM ET. It described a sharp pre-decision repricing, not an announced policy outcome.

Trading volume differs from pricing lead

The cut contract traded 188,000 dollars, compared with 208,000 dollars for the no-change contract. The latter therefore recorded more trading volume despite losing its earlier position at the top of the board.

The supplied summary does not identify what prompted the reversal or provide prices for other possible outcomes.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The reported prices show a decisive shift between the two contracts: a 25 basis point cut moved ahead as the no-change price fell to 0.5 percent.
  • Trading volume and market expectations diverged: the no-change contract had greater reported volume, but the cut contract carried the higher price.
  • These were prices ahead of the November 5 decision, not confirmation of the Bank of Mexico’s action.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
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