Peltola’s narrow Alaska lead meets near-certain pricing as ballots remain outstanding
Action Network reports about 60,000 mostly mail ballots remain outstanding, with no count update required before November 10 and ranked-choice tabulation scheduled for November 18. Kalshi volume has climbed to about 28.4 million dollars, nearly double the level traded by Wednesday.
Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan by 637 votes in the Alaska Senate race, while prediction markets price her at 98 cents on Polymarket and 96.9 cents on Kalshi, according to Action Network’s November 6, 2026, report published at 9:00 PM ET.
Outstanding ballots leave the count unfinished
About 60,000 ballots remain outstanding, most of them mail ballots, according to Action Network. That leaves a substantial number of ballots uncounted relative to Peltola’s current margin.
No count update is required before November 10, and ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for November 18. Those dates distinguish the current vote lead from the counting process still ahead.
Trading volume rises alongside high prices
Kalshi volume has reached about $28.4 million, nearly double the amount traded by Wednesday, according to Action Network. The increase accompanies prices that imply strong market confidence in Peltola despite the unfinished count.
The supplied reporting does not describe how the outstanding ballots are expected to break. The 637-vote margin and high contract prices therefore capture different things: the reported tally so far and traders’ expectations for the outcome.
What it means for prediction markets
- Prices are not a completed result: Peltola’s 98-cent Polymarket price and 96.9-cent Kalshi price indicate strong confidence, but about 60,000 ballots remain outstanding.
- The counting calendar matters: No update is required before November 10; ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for November 18.
- Volume measures activity, not certainty: Kalshi’s roughly $28.4 million in volume shows increased trading, without establishing how the remaining ballots will affect the race.
Sources & attribution
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