Peltola contracts near certainty as Alaska awaits outstanding ballot count

Mary Peltola’s contracts to win the Alaska Senate race are trading at 98 cents on Polymarket and 96.9 cents on Kalshi, according to Action Network. Those prices suggest strong market confidence despite a narrow reported lead over Dan Sullivan.

A narrow margin with ballots still outstanding

Peltola leads Sullivan by 637 votes, with about 60,000 ballots still outstanding, according to Action Network. Most of those remaining ballots are mail ballots.

No new count is required before November 10. That leaves a gap between the market’s current assessment and the next required counting update; it does not establish that an earlier update cannot occur.

Trading volume rises ahead of tabulation

Kalshi’s volume on the race has climbed to 28.4 million dollars, according to Action Network. Its 96.9-cent price is below Polymarket’s 98-cent price, although both platforms strongly favor Peltola.

Ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for November 18. That is a separate milestone from the November 10 counting deadline and remains an important date for readers tracking the unresolved race.

What it means for prediction markets

• Price versus count: Contracts strongly favor Peltola, but her reported advantage is only 637 votes, with about 60,000 ballots outstanding.
• Information timing: No new count is required before November 10, making the timing and content of further updates important to interpreting price changes.
• Tabulation milestone: November 18 is the scheduled ranked-choice tabulation date, not a contract-settlement date established by the supplied reporting.
• Volume is not confirmation: Kalshi’s 28.4 million dollars in volume measures trading activity, not certainty about the final result.