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Kalshi midterm volume reaches $2.5 billion after heavy final-day trading

Covers, citing Aldrin Research, reports Kalshi users generated 716 million dollars in combined notional trading volume on Tuesday, the final day of voting, taking total 2026 midterm volume on the platform to 2.5 billion dollars against 1.3 billion dollars in the 2024 cycle. The House control market alone drew 400.6 million dollars, and several markets passed 100 million dollars in notional trading volume.

Kalshi’s 2026 midterm markets recorded $2.5 billion in total notional trading volume, with $716 million generated on Tuesday, the final day of voting, according to Covers, citing Aldrin Research.

The figures put the platform’s midterm activity above the $1.3 billion recorded in the 2024 cycle. The comparison measures notional trading volume, rather than the number of participants or their profits.

House control attracts substantial activity

The market for control of the House accounted for $400.6 million in notional trading volume, according to Covers. Several markets exceeded $100 million, indicating that substantial activity extended beyond a single contract.

The report, published Nov 4, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET, highlights both the scale of trading on the final voting day and the larger cumulative volume across Kalshi’s 2026 midterm markets.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Cycle-level activity increased: The $2.5 billion total surpassed the $1.3 billion recorded in 2024, providing a benchmark for comparing trading across election cycles.
  • The final voting day mattered: Tuesday’s $716 million contributed substantially to the overall midterm total.
  • Volume is not a forecasting score: The figures establish trading activity, but do not show whether market prices accurately anticipated election outcomes.
KalshiElectionsMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Coverscovers.com
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    https://www.covers.com
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