Jackson aligns across Maine Senate markets as Collins pricing diverges
VegasInsider reports in its November 3 update at 1:43 p.m. ET that Jackson holds 69 cents on both Polymarket and Kalshi ahead of Maine's 8 p.m. ET poll close, while the exchanges disagree on Collins as she chases a sixth term. Kalshi adds a Democratic margin forecast of 3.4 points for the race.
Troy Jackson was priced at 69 cents on both Polymarket and Kalshi in VegasInsider’s November 3 update at 1:43 p.m. ET, ahead of Maine’s 8 p.m. ET poll close.
The matching prices put Jackson at 69 percent on each venue. The exchanges differed on Susan Collins, who is seeking a sixth term.
Collins prices show a six-point gap
According to VegasInsider, Polymarket priced Collins at 33 percent, compared with 27 percent on Kalshi—a difference of 6 percentage points.
That leaves the two venues aligned on Jackson’s probability but not on Collins’s. The supplied figures are a snapshot of market pricing, rather than an election result.
Kalshi projects a Democratic margin
Kalshi also carried a Democratic margin forecast of 3.4 points for the Maine Senate race, according to VegasInsider. That forecast measures the expected margin, distinct from the probability prices attached to the candidates.
The article’s publication timestamp is Nov 3, 2026, at 6:00 PM ET; the cited market update was earlier, at 1:43 p.m. ET. The supplied material does not include a subsequent pricing update.
What it means for prediction markets
- Agreement on Jackson: Both venues showed 69 cents, equivalent to a 69 percent market-implied probability.
- Divergence on Collins: Her 33 percent Polymarket price and 27 percent Kalshi price make venue selection important when describing market expectations.
- Different measures: Kalshi’s 3.4-point Democratic margin forecast should not be treated as interchangeable with a candidate’s win probability.
- Timing matters: The quoted prices precede Maine’s 8 p.m. ET poll close and reflect the 1:43 p.m. ET update, not the later publication time.
Sources & attribution
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