Macquarie projects sharp prediction market growth as sports contracts dominate
Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon forecasts prediction market taker volume of 186.8 billion dollars in 2026, a near 750 percent increase on 2025, after United States platforms generated 20.1 billion dollars in September. Sports event contracts accounted for 17 billion dollars of the September total, with Kalshi at 10.7 billion dollars and about 63 percent of the sports contract market.
Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon forecasts prediction market taker volume of 186.8 billion dollars in 2026, according to GambleRss. That would represent a near 750 percent increase from 22 billion dollars in 2025.
The forecast follows September activity in which United States platforms generated 20.1 billion dollars, according to the outlet.
Sports contracts account for most September activity
Sports event contracts contributed 17 billion dollars of September’s total. The figures place sports at the center of the activity reported for United States prediction-market platforms that month.
Kalshi recorded 10.7 billion dollars in sports contract volume, representing about 63 percent of that market, according to GambleRss.
What it means for prediction markets
- Forecast versus outcome: The 186.8 billion dollar figure is Beynon’s projection for 2026, rather than a reported full-year result.
- Sports exposure: Sports contracts accounted for most September volume, making their activity important context when assessing the broader growth forecast.
- Platform concentration: Kalshi’s about 63 percent share applies to the sports contract market, not to prediction markets overall.
Sources & attribution
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