Cleveland holds identical win probabilities across Kalshi and Polymarket US
Covers' prediction market comparison, updated at 1:12 AM ET on November 2, prices Cleveland at 61 percent on both Kalshi and Polymarket US for Monday's 7:00 PM ET game against Oklahoma City, with the Thunder at 39 percent on Kalshi and 40 percent on Polymarket US. Novig lists the same two prices for the game.
Cleveland is favored over Oklahoma City in the prediction-market comparison published by Covers on Nov 2, 2026 at 2:30 AM ET. Both Kalshi and Polymarket US price the Cavaliers at 61 percent for Monday’s game.
Cleveland pricing matches, while Oklahoma City differs
The comparison, updated at 1:12 AM ET on November 2, covers the matchup scheduled for 7:00 PM ET. Kalshi prices the Thunder at 39 percent, compared with 40 percent on Polymarket US.
That leaves the platforms aligned on Cleveland but separated by one percentage point on Oklahoma City. The two quoted team probabilities total 100 percent on Kalshi and 101 percent on Polymarket US.
According to Covers, Novig lists the same two prices for the game. The supplied summary does not specify which platform’s pair that refers to.
What it means for prediction markets
- Shared favorite: Both Kalshi and Polymarket US assign Cleveland a 61 percent probability, showing agreement on the favored team at the comparison’s update time.
- A narrow pricing difference: Oklahoma City’s 39 percent and 40 percent quotes distinguish the platforms despite their identical Cleveland prices.
- Timing matters: These figures represent the 1:12 AM ET update, not necessarily the prices available closer to the 7:00 PM ET game.
Sources & attribution
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