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Kalshi’s midterm markets lean Democratic as trading reaches $497 million

Kalshi reports its traders favour Democrats in 20 and Republicans in 15 of the 35 Senate races, with Iowa the one toss-up, and favour Democrats in 22 and Republicans in 14 of the 36 governor races. About 497 million dollars has traded on Kalshi Senate, House and governor markets as of November 3, and the most traded Senate combo is the market on how many Senate seats Democrats will hold after the midterms, with 15 million dollars traded.

Kalshi traders favour Democrats in 241 House races and Republicans in 194, according to the platform’s November 3, 2026 update, published at 10:45 AM ET. Kalshi also identifies 12 House contests as toss-ups.

Senate and governor markets show similar lean

Across the 35 Senate races, Kalshi reports that Democrats are favoured in 20 and Republicans in 15. It separately describes Iowa as the lone toss-up; the supplied summary does not explain how that designation fits with the party totals.

Democrats are also favoured in more governor contests. According to Kalshi, traders give them the advantage in 22 of the 36 races, compared with 14 for Republicans.

Trading volume approaches half a billion dollars

About $497 million has traded across Kalshi’s Senate, House and governor markets as of November 3. The most-traded Senate combo market concerns how many Senate seats Democrats will hold after the midterms, with $15 million traded, according to Kalshi.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Democrats lead the reported favourite counts across House, Senate and governor contests. Those counts describe market positioning, not confirmed election results.
  • The supplied material gives no individual race probabilities, limiting comparisons between narrow favourites and stronger market leads.
  • The House and Senate toss-up classifications are not reconciled with the party-favourite totals in the supplied material, leaving ambiguity about how those categories overlap.
  • The $15 million Senate seat-count market highlights trading interest in the chamber-wide outcome alongside individual races.
KalshiSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Kalshikalshi.com
    Publisher
    https://kalshi.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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