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Kalshi Senate contracts reveal pricing differences across overlapping election markets

KuCoin, citing Coin Metrics research, reports Kalshi listed 38 separate contracts tied to Senate control across five event categories, and the implied probabilities for the same outcome diverged by as much as 9.7 percentage points intraday. The report notes cumulative midterm trading on Kalshi and Polymarket has surpassed 1.4 billion dollars.

KuCoin, citing Coin Metrics research, reported that Kalshi had 38 separate contracts linked to Senate control across five event categories. Implied probabilities for the same outcome differed by as much as 9.7 percentage points intraday.

One outcome, multiple prices

The report, published Nov 1, 2026 · 10:30 PM ET, highlights a distinction between the political outcome being traded and the price displayed by any individual contract. In this case, contracts tied to the same outcome did not consistently imply the same probability.

The supplied summary does not identify the individual contracts or explain what drove the divergence. It therefore leaves unresolved whether the gap reflected contract terms, trading conditions or other differences.

Trading volume provides context

According to KuCoin’s account, cumulative midterm trading on Kalshi and Polymarket has surpassed 1.4 billion dollars. That figure covers both platforms, while the reported Senate-contract price gap concerns Kalshi.

The volume total and the pricing divergence describe different aspects of the market: aggregate trading activity and consistency across related contracts. The summary does not establish a connection between them.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Contract selection matters: A single Senate-control price may not represent all related Kalshi contracts when implied probabilities differ by up to 9.7 percentage points.
  • Comparability remains unresolved: Without individual contract details, the reported gap alone does not establish that the contracts were interchangeable.
  • Keep the scope clear: The 38 contracts and five event categories concern Kalshi; the trading total exceeding 1.4 billion dollars combines Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiPolymarketSenateMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source 1
    KuCoin
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    Source URL
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  2. Source 2
    Coin Metrics research via KuCoin
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Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to KuCoin”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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