Kalshi leads midterm trading as Polymarket’s post-election resilience faces scrutiny
A Trefis comparison of the two largest venues puts Kalshi's 2026 midterm trading at about 1.1 billion dollars as of October 23, against about 340 million dollars on Polymarket. Trefis notes Polymarket's volume fell 84 percent the morning after the 2024 election and expects a smaller post-election drop this cycle, as the platform no longer depends on elections and its United States app launched with sports.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- Trefis
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Trefis”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Related
- Kalshi traders called 98 percent of resolved midterm races, with favorites winning 479 of 487 contests, Kalshi reports
- October prediction market volume rose 58.7 percent to a record 121.28 billion dollars, with open interest up 41.5 percent to 3.13 billion dollars, VIP Grinders reports
- Polymarket combined market share fell to 17.2 percent in the 30 days before October 29 as Polymarket US rewrote its trader incentive programs, Gaming America reports
- San Francisco 49ers lead Kalshi's 2027 NFL Champion market at 15 percent, ahead of Buffalo at 13 percent and Chicago at 11 percent, Sports Illustrated reports
- Talos research finds thin liquidity behind midterm contracts, with 300,000 dollars of selling enough to move Kalshi's Senate contract 10 points, Cointelegraph reports
- Taylor Fritz is the short-priced side of Kalshi's most-traded tennis market, at a 1.34x payout against Alex Molcan at 3.40x on $3,611,085 traded