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Kalshi’s midterm odds approached certainty before NBC’s election call

Kalshi and Polymarket traded 2 billion dollars in 2026 midterm contracts from January to November 4. Kalshi favourites had won 479 of 487 resolved races by 6am Eastern on November 4.

Kalshi put the probability of Democratic control of both chambers at 99 percent about two hours before NBC called the midterms, according to Prediction Frontier. The report recorded 794 million dollars traded in 24 hours.

The timing places Kalshi’s near-certain pricing ahead of NBC’s call, though the supplied material does not show when those odds first rose or how they changed as results arrived.

Trading volume and resolved races

Kalshi and Polymarket together traded 2 billion dollars in 2026 midterm contracts from January to November 4, according to Prediction Frontier. That combined figure covers a different period from the reported 24-hour trading total.

By 6am Eastern on November 4, Kalshi favourites had won 479 of 487 resolved races. Prediction Frontier’s report was published on Nov 6, 2026, at 11:15 AM ET; the race tally therefore reflects the earlier November 4 snapshot, not an updated count at publication.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Timing matters: The 99 percent reading preceded NBC’s call by about two hours, but the supplied figures alone do not establish how early traders anticipated the outcome.
  • The win tally has a defined scope: The 479 wins among 487 resolved races describe Kalshi favourites at the stated cutoff, not every midterm contract or unresolved contest.
  • Volume comparisons need care: The 2 billion dollars spans both platforms from January to November 4, while the 794 million dollars covers a 24-hour window.
KalshiPolymarketMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Prediction Frontier
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