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Vance nomination pricing diverges across Kalshi and Polymarket

The cross-venue gap is the largest PicksByOdds currently shows between Kalshi and Polymarket on a matched political market. Both prices are live snapshots from the two exchanges.

J.D. Vance’s contract in the 2028 Republican presidential nominee market is priced at 33 cents on Kalshi and 39 cents on Polymarket, according to PicksByOdds. That puts the two exchanges 6 points apart.

A gap between venues

The difference is the largest PicksByOdds currently shows between Kalshi and Polymarket for a matched political market. That comparison is limited to the markets PicksByOdds displays, rather than a claim about every political contract.

The update was published on Nov 6, 2026, at 12:15 PM ET. Both exchange prices are live snapshots, so the figures describe the observed pricing rather than a fixed spread.

Polymarket’s price for Vance is higher than Kalshi’s in this snapshot. The supplied summary does not explain the difference or establish how long it has persisted.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Venue matters: The same nomination prospect carries different prices across the two exchanges: 33 cents on Kalshi versus 39 cents on Polymarket.
  • The comparison has a defined scope: The 6-point gap leads the matched political markets currently shown by PicksByOdds.
  • Persistence remains unknown: These live snapshots do not establish a lasting divergence or show whether the gap is widening or narrowing.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PicksByOdds
    Publisher
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