Infiniti FeedOct 31, 2026 · 3:15 PM ET

Kalshi midterm pricing favors Democrats as tracked trading reaches 272 million

The tracker, updated October 31, prices Democrats to control the Senate at 69 percent and Democrats to control the House at 93 percent on Kalshi. It reports about 21.6 million contracts traded in 24 hours across the 2026 midterm markets it follows.

Kalshi’s tracked 2026 midterm markets have recorded 272 million contracts traded across Senate, House and chamber-control markets, according to PredictionMarketPicks.

Its tracker, updated October 31, puts the market-implied probability of Democrats controlling the Senate at 69 percent and Democrats controlling the House at 93 percent.

House and Senate pricing diverge

The readings place Democratic control above 50 percent in both chambers, but show a stronger expectation for the House. The difference between the two control probabilities is 24 percentage points.

PredictionMarketPicks also reports about 21.6 million contracts traded over 24 hours across the 2026 midterm markets covered by its tracker. That activity figure describes the markets it follows, rather than a stated platform-wide total.

What it means for prediction markets

Different expectations by chamber: The 69 percent Senate reading and 93 percent House reading signal distinct levels of market confidence in Democratic control.
Activity is not direction: The reported contract totals measure trading activity; they do not establish whether prices moved toward or away from either party.
A dated snapshot: The probabilities reflect the tracker’s October 31 update, not settled election outcomes.

KalshiSenateMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published: Oct 31, 2026 · 3:15 PM ET

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PredictionMarketPicks
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Kalshi midterm pricing favors Democrats as tracked trading reaches 272 million

House and Senate pricing diverge

What it means for prediction markets

Sources & attribution

Related

House and Senate pricing diverge

What it means for prediction markets