Kalshi leads midterm trading as Polymarket’s sports focus faces attention
Trefis reports that, as of about October 23, Kalshi had traded about 1.1 billion dollars on 2026 midterm markets against about 340 million dollars on Polymarket, which sought a 21 billion dollar valuation in its latest round after ICE put in 1.6 billion dollars. Polymarket volume fell 84 percent the morning after the 2024 election, and Trefis expects a smaller post-midterm drop because its U.S. app launched with sports rather than politics.
Kalshi recorded about 1.1 billion dollars in trading on 2026 midterm markets as of about October 23, compared with about 340 million dollars on Polymarket, according to Trefis. That puts Kalshi’s volume at about 3.2 times its rival’s.
Midterm activity and valuation
The figures show a substantial gap in election-market trading between the two platforms. They describe activity in 2026 midterm markets, rather than total trading across all categories.
According to Trefis, Polymarket sought a 21 billion dollar valuation in its latest funding round after ICE invested 1.6 billion dollars. That fundraising backdrop makes the durability of activity beyond elections a relevant question, although the supplied figures do not establish a relationship between trading volume and valuation.
A different post-election outlook
Polymarket’s volume fell 84 percent on the morning after the 2024 election, according to Trefis. That decline provides a historical reference for how sharply trading can change once a major political event concludes.
Trefis expects a smaller decline after the midterms because Polymarket’s U.S. app launched with sports rather than politics. That is a forecast, not an observed outcome; the distinction is whether activity outside elections can soften the post-election slowdown.
What it means for prediction markets
- The lead is category-specific: Kalshi’s roughly 3.2-fold advantage applies to the reported 2026 midterm volume, not necessarily platform-wide activity.
- Post-election retention is the next test: The 84 percent decline after the 2024 election is a historical benchmark, not a prediction for this cycle.
- Sports underpin Trefis’s outlook: Its expectation of a smaller decline rests on Polymarket’s sports-first U.S. app launch; the supplied material does not quantify the expected drop.
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