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Kalshi leads Polymarket in reported trading on 2026 midterms

Trefis, citing CNN figures as of about October 23, says Kalshi handled nearly 1.1 billion dollars on 2026 midterm markets against more than 340 million dollars for Polymarket across its US and international sites. It notes Polymarket sought a 21 billion dollar valuation in its latest round, with ICE putting in 1.6 billion dollars.

Kalshi recorded nearly $1.1 billion in volume on 2026 midterm markets, compared with more than $340 million for Polymarket, according to Trefis, citing CNN figures as of about October 23.

The reported totals put Kalshi’s volume at about 3.2 times Polymarket’s. Polymarket’s figure covers activity across both its US and international sites.

Trading volume and fundraising

The figures provide a comparison of election-market activity at the two platforms, but their timing matters: they reflect a snapshot from about October 23, rather than an updated tally for November 3, 2026.

Separately, Trefis said Polymarket sought a $21 billion valuation in its latest funding round, with ICE putting in $1.6 billion. The valuation sought and the midterm trading totals measure different aspects of the business and should not be treated as equivalent indicators.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Reported activity favors Kalshi: Its nearly $1.1 billion midterm total was about 3.2 times Polymarket’s more than $340 million across its US and international sites.
  • The comparison is time-specific: The figures are dated to about October 23 and do not establish how the platforms’ volumes changed afterward.
  • Volume is not an election forecast: These totals describe trading activity, not the implied probability of any midterm outcome.
  • Fundraising is a separate signal: Polymarket’s sought $21 billion valuation and ICE’s $1.6 billion investment do not, by themselves, establish liquidity or pricing quality in individual markets.
KalshiPolymarketMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Trefis
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