Kalshi midterm favorites dominate results while Polymarket edges probability scoring

Kalshi’s favored candidates won 479 of 487 resolved races in the 2026 midterms, a 98 percent hit rate, according to RotoWire’s review. The tally covered races resolved by 6:00 AM ET on November 4.

Strong results across resolved contests

The House accounted for much of that record: Kalshi favorites won 356 of 360 resolved House races, according to RotoWire. Favorites also won all 23 secretary of state races included in the review.

Those figures describe the contests resolved at the cutoff, rather than a final accounting of every midterm race. The review’s timing matters when interpreting the overall hit rate.

Hit rates and probability scores tell different stories

RotoWire also compared the platforms using Brier scores. On that measure, Polymarket performed slightly better than Kalshi for both chambers, despite Kalshi’s high share of winning favorites.

The findings therefore offer two distinct comparisons: how often the favored candidate won, and how the platforms performed on probability scoring. Kalshi’s 98 percent hit rate does not, by itself, establish that it led the latter comparison.

What it means for prediction markets

• Scope matters: The 479-of-487 result applies to races resolved by 6:00 AM ET on November 4, not necessarily the complete election slate.
• The metric changes the comparison: Kalshi recorded a high favorite-win rate, while Polymarket held a slight Brier-score advantage for both chambers.
• Category results add detail: The review reported 356 wins among 360 resolved House favorites and a perfect record across 23 secretary of state races.