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Kalshi traders put December hike without dissents at 56 percent

The combo contract pairs the rate decision at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting with the dissent count, and its main price move followed the October 28 FOMC statement. Two voters dissented in favor of a hike at the October meeting, leaving meaningful dissent risk priced into the December contract.

A Kalshi combination contract assigns a 56 percent probability to a 25 basis point rate increase with zero dissents at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, according to Octagon.

The reporting, published Nov 4, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET, describes a market that links two outcomes: the rate decision and the number of dissenting voters. Its price therefore reflects more than expectations for the direction of interest rates.

October vote shapes December pricing

The contract’s principal price movement came after the October 28 FOMC statement, according to Octagon. At the October meeting, two voters dissented in favor of a hike.

That disagreement leaves meaningful dissent risk embedded in the December contract. A 25 basis point increase alone would not satisfy the combination: the decision would also need to draw zero dissents.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 56 percent price applies to a joint outcome. It should not be read as the market’s standalone probability of a 25 basis point December hike.
  • The vote count matters alongside the policy decision. Any dissent would put the result outside the specified combination, even if the rate increase matched.
  • October provides context, not a December result. The two pro-hike dissents help explain why disagreement remains relevant to pricing, but do not establish how voters will act on December 8-9.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    Octagon
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Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Octagon”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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