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Kalshi 30-year mortgage market prices 74% above 7.34%

The mortgage contract traded $52K, with 44% above 7.36% quoted Oct. 14.

Kalshi’s 30-year mortgage market priced the probability of a rate above 7.34% at 74% in the Oct. 14, 2026 update published at 7:24 AM ET. The mortgage contract recorded $52K in trading.

A separate quote on Oct. 14 put the probability of a rate above 7.36% at 44%. The two thresholds therefore carried a 30-percentage-point difference in implied probability, despite being separated by just 0.02 percentage points.

Broader economics trading

According to defirate.com, economics markets across Kalshi, Polymarket and Rothera generated $2.7M in trading over the last 24 hours, an increase of 27% from the preceding 24 hours. Kalshi accounted for $2.1M, compared with $610K on Polymarket and $25K on Rothera.

The busiest individual economics market was Polymarket’s contract on the Fed’s October decision, with $345K traded, according to defirate.com. Traders assigned an 81% probability to no change and 19% to a 25 bps increase.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The mortgage quotes show how much pricing can differ between nearby thresholds: 74% above 7.34%, versus 44% above 7.36%. Those are distinct outcomes, not competing estimates for the same cutoff.
  • The supplied material does not specify the mortgage contract’s measurement date or settlement source, limiting interpretation of the rate thresholds.
  • Kalshi led aggregate economics trading, while Polymarket hosted the most-traded individual contract. Platform-level activity and individual-market volume measure different aspects of participation.
KalshiMortgagesEconomy

Sources & attribution

  1. [1]Defirate (defirate.com)https://defirate.com/odds/economy/

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