NBA Finals board splits the venues, with Miami the widest gap: 7% on Kalshi vs. 3% on Polymarket

Miami’s NBA championship pricing shows a pronounced split between Kalshi and Polymarket: 7% on Kalshi versus 3% on Polymarket, according to Sports Illustrated. The comparison also reveals different favorites and a reversal in the rankings of Philadelphia and defending champion New York.

Different leaders, similar concentration

Kalshi puts the Oklahoma City Thunder first at 22%, while Polymarket’s highest-priced team is the San Antonio Spurs at 21%. Sports Illustrated reports a 1% separation between the two teams on each platform, with both comfortably ahead of the remaining contenders.

The Thunder and Spurs are the only teams priced above 10% on Kalshi. On Polymarket, the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers also exceed that threshold, though Sports Illustrated describes a 7% gap between the leading pair and the next tier.

Philadelphia and New York swap places

Philadelphia ranks third on Kalshi at 10%, compared with fourth on Polymarket at 11%. The reigning champion Knicks occupy fourth place on Kalshi at 9%, but third on Polymarket at 13%. New York’s four-percentage-point difference therefore matches Miami’s absolute cross-venue gap.

Miami’s pricing changes its position relative to two other contenders. Kalshi places the Heat at 7%, ahead of the Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves at 5% each. Polymarket also prices Boston and Minnesota at 5%, but puts Miami below both at 3%.

Sports Illustrated’s illustrative $10 trades show the largest reported profit difference for Miami: $124 on Kalshi versus $303.20 on Polymarket if the Heat win. The outlet also reports potential profits of $33.09 for a $10 Thunder trade on Kalshi and $36.49 for a $10 Spurs trade on Polymarket.

What it means for prediction markets

• The leading contenders are consistent, but their order is not. Both venues put the Thunder and Spurs well ahead of the field, while choosing different favorites.
• Miami’s divergence is substantial relative to its price. Its 7% Kalshi price is more than twice its 3% Polymarket price; the Knicks also show a four-percentage-point gap.
• Rank alone can obscure pricing differences. Philadelphia ranks higher on Kalshi despite having a lower quoted probability there.
• The reported trade examples are conditional. Their profit figures depend on the selected team winning; they are not guaranteed returns.