Kalshi diesel contract for October sits at 99% above $5.50

Kalshi’s October diesel contract showed a 99% probability of a price above $5.50, with $85K traded, in the supplied market snapshot published Oct 14, 2026, at 7:24 AM ET.

A separate Kalshi market on U.S. gas prices this week put the probability of a reading above $4.16 at 99%, on $67K in trading. Both fuel contracts therefore reflected strongly one-sided expectations, though neither probability represents a settled outcome.

Economics trading picks up

According to defirate.com, economics markets across Kalshi, Polymarket and Rothera generated $2.7M in trading over the last 24 hours, an increase of 27% from the preceding 24 hours.

Kalshi accounted for $2.1M of that activity, compared with $610K on Polymarket and $25K on Rothera, according to defirate.com.

Fed decision leads individual markets

The most actively traded economics contract was Polymarket’s market on the October Fed decision, with $345K in volume, according to defirate.com. Traders assigned an 81% probability to no change and 19% to a 25 bps increase.

The supplied fuel-market snapshot gives thresholds, probabilities and trading volumes, but does not include the contracts’ settlement sources or precise observation dates. Those details remain necessary to interpret exactly what each fuel contract will resolve against.

What it means for prediction markets

• Fuel expectations are concentrated: Both the October diesel threshold above $5.50 and this week’s U.S. gas threshold above $4.16 carried 99% probabilities—not confirmed outcomes.
• Volume provides context: Diesel attracted $85K and gas $67K, while the leading October Fed decision market drew $345K.
• Contract definitions matter: Without settlement rules and observation dates, the fuel prices should be read as market thresholds rather than verified current prices.